How many seasons does Melbourne really have?
16,436 days of real weather data (1981-2025), analysed with changepoint detection. The algorithm found 7 distinct seasons as the statistically optimal breakdown - but you can explore other numbers below.
Statistically optimal breakdown
Blaze
13 Dec - 11 Feb
61 days
19.3Avg temp
25.0Avg high
1.7Rain mm/d
11.3Sun hrs
Ember
12 Feb - 21 Mar
39 days
19.3Avg temp
24.8Avg high
1.4Rain mm/d
10.2Sun hrs
Lull
22 Mar - 27 Apr
37 days
15.9Avg temp
20.6Avg high
1.9Rain mm/d
8.4Sun hrs
Dusk
28 Apr - 05 Jun
39 days
12.3Avg temp
16.2Avg high
2.0Rain mm/d
6.9Sun hrs
Gloom
06 Jun - 27 Aug
83 days
9.5Avg temp
13.0Avg high
2.3Rain mm/d
6.6Sun hrs
Squall
28 Aug - 17 Oct
51 days
11.9Avg temp
16.1Avg high
2.4Rain mm/d
8.7Sun hrs
Dawn
18 Oct - 12 Dec
56 days
15.7Avg temp
20.7Avg high
2.4Rain mm/d
10.3Sun hrs
Annual Climate Profile
Each variable averaged across 1981-2025, smoothed to show the annual cycle. Coloured bands show the 7 season boundaries.
Season Calendar
Season Fingerprints
Model Selection
BIC (Bayesian Information Criterion) penalises model complexity. Lower is better. The dip at K=7 indicates the statistically optimal number of seasons.